Post-COVID CPG shopping: The new “normals” are not so obvious

One day in March (hard to say which day exactly), everything changed – suddenly and quite dramatically as the realities of COVID-19 became evident. In addition to many usual behaviors coming to a halt, new ones emerged; old ones re-emerged and some nascent ones saw their adoption accelerated. Now the question is, which of these will stick once society fully re-opens and a vaccine becomes widespread?

Which of the new behaviors will remain, which will recede, and which will continue to evolve? In the world of CPG, some of the shifts to consider include whether online shopping is finally embraced, if smaller brands or innovations will be able to break through the stranglehold of established top tier brands, and if traditional, processed comfort foods are really back, to name just a few. Many predictions have been made of late about these behaviors, based on the early shifts. Most are quite confident about one or more of these changes being permanent.

I would caution that for just about every indication of a behavior moving one way, there is an equally compelling argument to be made for it going in the opposite direction. To be prepared for the new realities to come, marketers will need to neither be hobbled by fear and uncertainty and do nothing, nor be overly bold and invest too heavily and too soon in the one path that seems certain at the moment. It is best to consider several reasonable possibilities, plan for the most likely and stay connected with shoppers to gauge how their attitudes, perceptions, and behaviors continue to transform over time.

Here are just a few of the conflicting “certain” new behaviors some expect to take hold for CPG products:

1. Shopping behavior

When it comes to the way we shop, there are no silver bullet solutions for predicting behavior – there are complex changes taking place in both online and in-store shopping. Brand owners must keep sight of both in order to perform well in these very different realms. Here’s how consumers are split between the two:

1 Research paper; 2 Online sales; 3 Walmart; 4 Target; 5 Kroger; 6 Mars

2. Brand choices

In crises with such a far-reaching scope, neither big or small brands can sit back and relax. There are signs of a return to well-known brands, as well as a strong desire for spicing up our mundane consumer choices in the face of looming uncertainty.

1 Corona virus recession; 2 Venture into oat milk domain; 3 The second in sales and holds a fifth of the US oat milk market

3. Product choices

Now, more than ever, the average consumer is torn between the impulsive doing-what-feels-right products, and an aspiration to create better habits and a better life. As much as 35% percent of Americans have tried new healthy foods during the outbreak, followed by 29% of them who have tried new snack and junk food brands, as reported by Statista.This tension between shopping to make ourselves feel better in the moment and healthier for the future is shaping how we spend our money and is crucial for brands to learn about.

1 off the shelves: 2 bread

To sum up…

The truth is that we are living in unprecedented times with no clear road map of what is to come or how best to navigate the journey. The best strategy is to continue to understand how consumers are thinking, feeling and behaving – even as it all continues to evolve – and develop product offerings that fill unmet needs, or are better suited to their desires in this moment.

Importantly, know that research conducted at this time can be trusted to provide meaningful insights – we have validated that study results obtained recently aligned with those obtained a year ago or more.

The key is to use fully vetted methods that will include a sufficiently large sample to be projectable and allow for statistical testing and sub-group analysis. The best methods include a combination of measures, implicitly assessing behavioral responses to stimuli – such as new package designs – and including sufficient explicit measures to help explain the findings. This way, the results can be relied on to predict in-market performance and uncover potential areas of improvement to make pre-launch, thereby increasing the likelihood for success.

Interested in learning more about offsetting the challenges of testing in a time of changed consumer sentiment? Reach out to us via info@eyesee-research.com.

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