Whether you should be conducting market research during these turbulent times is a complex question with many opposing opinions – we already discussed the ways you can ensure reliable research results right now. In this blog, we elaborate on several perspectives on trend development and forecasting in the coming months, and one of the fundamental roles of insights – understanding what is happening in the consumer environment. How does a crisis influence trends? If companies are delaying research, how long should they delay studies for? What is the impact of postponing research?

Crises accelerate trends

One of the roles of research is to understand how the world is evolving – so that insights can advise senior leaders and the c-suit about actions that need to be taken. Insights departments should always be on the lookout for emerging trends. And what we are seeing now, is not all that new. After (and during) the COVID-19 crisis, the world will not be entirely different – instead, the evolution we were already on the brink of is just speeding up. For example, e-commerce is definitely not new, but its penetration has tripled or quadrupled in only 6 weeks. The same goes for remote education and work, or some product attributes – for example, a focus on health and wellbeing was already a trend; now, it will be even more relevant. What would have been the reality in 6 to 12 years, is currently taking place in 6 weeks only. We see many existing trends experiencing a decade-leap forward.

Constrained by their environment and circumstances, people are forced to or feel the need to try out new options. In a way, a product or experience may be new for the individual, but on the other hand, it was already there for the early adopters. Due to these circumstances, the trend adoption rate among consumers is becoming much steeper.

Conflicting forces make trends more unpredictable

We will witness many things happen in the upcoming months, just like we did in the last few weeks, only, hopefully, a little bit slower. Trends are not random events, though. They are steered by external forces (e.g., the obesity issue created a healthcare trend) that differ in strength, speed, and length – and this, along with conflicting pressures, make it difficult to predict trends:

• A surge in buying healthy products (health-conscious consumers who want to prevent getting sick) vs. purchasing the cheapest products due to a difficult financial situation, or
• a decrease in using public commute (spurred by the fear of disease) vs. no money to afford a car, an increased need for public transport
• Length of forces: When will the economy reopen? How much time will it take to not feel anxious anymore while shopping?
• ….

Before the crisis, these forces evolved more slowly and gradually, which made predictions easier than now – in a world dominated by sudden changes in trends.

This is where insights come into play – to monitor the trend directions and understand the forces driving them. Brands need to start thinking carefully about each new trend and try to uncover their unseen consequences for both their customers and their business in this extreme duality.

How much do actions lag after insights?

A big part of the role of insights is understanding consumer needs – research needs to measure trends as they happen, and so to speak – put ‘the black dots’ on the graph. Let’s take a look at what we mean by that. Below you can find a simplified example of a consumer trend over time. You measure the trend direction (insights: the black dot) and then develop the product that your consumer needs. This product is launched 6 months to 2 years later (the red dot). By the time it is on the market, the client has already evolved a little bit, but as the gap is not too big, so the consumers are still happy with the product. If the were to be too big, then the consumers would have an incentive for a brand change. During a crisis, when trends form and change much faster than usual, it is even more critical to both measure and launch new products that fit the needs of the consumer.

With a steeper trend growth, it is essential to try harder to understand the current trends as the client’s needs are also developing faster. This means that the delta between the client’s requirement and the product offering is becoming even more significant – thus, the chance of switching brands grows higher if these needs are not fulfilled. Highly volatile environments have much steeper trend curves – when that is taking place, it is imperative to monitor them with more research, rather than stepping back until things settle.

Not all trend curves are the same

Another interesting topic is the shape of the trends. Especially now, with abrupt changes, we might see many more variations of specific trends. This is another reason why it is so hard to predict trend outcomes in fast-changing environments – as we said, sometimes, opposing forces are at play. For example, the healthy food trend – we spoke about the two types of effect the crisis has on it – but which one will prevail depends on how these socio-economic groups will change and come out on the other side of the crisis. The same is valid for online education. Right there’s a surge in online educational platforms because people have more time on their hands (no job, less socializing (e.g., team sports, going out…). However, once the economy is picking up again, you might see a significant drop in the interest, as people will need to work more than before to compensate for the period of income loss, or people will prefer enjoying the activities they couldn’t partake in during the crisis. On the other hand, it is easier to do something for the second time than the first time – so this crisis might have just removed the last obstacles to online education in the future – and online learning might follow a curve as displayed in scenario 3.

What does this mean for research?

The scenarios we discussed today are simplified, but they are helping make clear that conducting research in these fast-changing times is more important than ever. It is quite challenging to predict trend outcomes (i.e., how significant is the addressable market for a specific new product) even in regular times – let alone during a period of rapid change. Research should serve brands to feel the pulse of the consumer along every step of the way.

This crisis can bring about a lot of different effects – so this is not an easy question to answer. However, there was much talk about agile testing in the insights industry in the last few years, but honestly, we have not seen many examples of real agile testing. This crisis requires faster testing and more of it for a lower budget. Despite this, internal clients will ask for the highest possible predictivity as they gauge consumer needs in order to be able to hit the sweet spot. We don’t advocate substituting quant with qual for validation testing, nor we say drop behavioral research and only conduct explicit research – the truth is somewhere in the middle, where high-quality insights meet fast research.

Wonder how to run reliable research during the COVID-19 crisis? 
Here are two approaches you can use.

Author: Olivier Tilleuil, Founder of EyeSee