After a highly sought-after webinar on September 2, in which Jonathan Asher, EyeSee’s EVP, and Karen Kraft, Senior Consumer Insights Manager, Johnsonville, exchanged opinions on the conflicting trends in the CPG shopping domain, we bring you the best outtakes and conclusions from their conversation. If you missed the webinar – watch the session recording here.

Online or offline shopping after the novelty wears off?

When it comes to the way we shop – there are so many factors and moving parts that make up a decision of where to shop. With COVID, things got even more complicated. We dove into how the crisis impacts consumers’ choosing between shopping online and offline shopping.

Jonathan remarked that during the crisis, some consumers opted to shop online because physical stores were closed or because they wanted to avoid contact with other shoppers, store staff, or surfaces they feared might be contaminated. Some predictions suggest that now that shoppers have made the leap, it’s unlikely that they will revert to their old ways entirely.

Of course, some who were new to online shopping experienced considerable difficulties – be it technological, out-of-stock, higher prices, or extremely long delivery times. These will likely drive them back to brick and mortar stores, discouraged from trying e-commerce again anytime soon.

However, as they generally tire of their worlds’ existing online 24/7 – for work, school, socialization, entertainment, and shopping – people will seek in-person, offline engagements wherever they can find them. Shopping for groceries is an easy and accessible way to do so.

Karen Kraft also feels there is no clear-cut answer: “Online shopping has experienced a step change. It will subside a bit, but many consumers overcame the barriers of first-time use and will have found that it’s pretty easy and convenient and keep some level of online shopping (especially for stock up staples) in their repertoire.” For her, online grocery shopping is likely to net out at two steps forward, one step back.

How will the recession impact the choice between top tier and value brands?

Right now, shoppers want to get in and out of the store as quickly as possible. With that, they tend to reach for what is familiar or most readily available. This helps fuel the buying of leading brands, which are both familiar and most prevalent on the shelf – Jonathan said.
He continues: “At the same time, The coronavirus recession is forecast to be the worst in several decades, meaning businesses and consumers will be cash-strapped for the foreseeable future. As such, they will forego luxuries and shop for lower-priced necessities for the foreseeable future.”
Karen felt this recession would be different: “While the likely recession/depression will continue beyond COVID (which would suggest value brands/private labels gaining strength), COVID is going to leave new concerns about safety that make consumers feel more confident in top tier/name brands. This will be a net/net, zero-sum game.”

Will established products reign, or is this the time to innovate?

Another dichotomy that is worth mentioning is the good-old, established, and iconic brands versus disruptive players and new product developments.

Having become bored with the routines they had to endure during the worst days of the crisis, feeling more comfortable lingering a bit in stores, Jonathan thinks shoppers will be eager to find new types of products and variations of old standbys.

“Some products that were popular during the crisis might remind us of negative feelings connected to being quarantined and will be avoided.”

Karen shared her angle and experience: “Thanks to COVID, consumers are gravitating to the comfortable and familiar. This will continue post-COVID as that is also how consumers behave during a recession (especially those most economically impacted… don’t want to risk wasting money on something they won’t like). That said, close-in innovation that makes the familiar safer, easier, a bit more exciting will likely do well. Trying new things at home is a potential source of entertainment, especially if grounded in the familiar. It won’t be a great time to introduce things that are completely new that aren’t grounded in the familiar.” She also mentioned a new product launch that Johnsonville pulled off with great success during the crisis: Sausage strips – an example of a fresh product that represents a new twist on the familiar.

Overindulgence vs. a focus on future health

Since the start of the pandemic in March, many have experienced both ends of this spectrum – indulging in comfort foods and striving to eat better. The question is, how do these behaviors play out in the market?

Many are allowing themselves to indulge with foods they had previously cut back on as a way to relieve stress. Prior trends of shoppers buying less processed, healthier versions of meal staples are likely to return as routines become more like they were pre-COVID and consumers opt for relatively healthy food options. In addition, the crisis has shed light on the benefits of healthy eating – and good health in general – as a way to be less vulnerable to the effects of the virus.

For Karen Kraft, the verdict is clear: Comfort foods have roared back during COVID and won’t be going anywhere during the lingering economic woes.

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Conclusions

For the end of the session, both participants shared their key thoughts on the topis. Jonathan Asher offered a strategy to move forward: “We are living in unprecedented times with no clear road map of what is to come or how best to navigate the journey. The best strategy is to continue to understand how consumers are thinking, feeling and behaving – even as it all continues to evolve – and develop product offerings that fill unmet needs, or are better suited to their desires in this moment.”

Karen Kraft concluded that “The recession that is going to follow COVID is going to be different – traditional recession behaviors are going to be moderated by concerns for health and safety.”

Watch the full webinar recording below: